The Odds Are In: CFTC Proposes Framework for Event Contracts and Prediction Markets

On June 10, 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (the “CFTC” or the “Commission”) published a notice of proposed rulemaking (the “NPRM” or the “Proposal”) suggesting comprehensive amendments to CFTC Regulation 40.11 and adding a new Appendix F to Part 40 concerning event contracts traded on prediction markets. The Proposal would further specify the types of event contracts that may be determined contrary to the public interest under Section 5c(c)(5)(C) of the Commodity Exchange Act of 1936, as amended, and, therefore, may not be listed for trading or accepted for clearing on or through a CFTC-registered entity. Public comments on the Proposal are due by July 27, 2026.

The Proposal arrives at a time of extraordinary growth in prediction markets. The CFTC describes event contracts as potentially valuable tools for price discovery, information aggregation, and hedging in connection with events that may not be addressed by traditional financial instruments. At the same time, the rapid proliferation of these products—spanning macroeconomics, politics, weather, sports, public health, scientific discoveries, awards, and other topics—has presented the Commission with difficult questions about where to draw the line between legitimate economic activity and activity contrary to the public interest.